Aversion to in-vehicle crowding before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Based on four consecutive stated choice surveys, we estimate changes in public transport user’s valuation (marginal costs) of in-vehicle crowding due to the COVID-19 pandemic in two Norwegian cities. Compared to the pre-COVID level (November 2018), we find significantly higher costs during COVID (November 2021). Post-COVID costs (May 2022) are significantly reduced but remain above the pre-COVID level.publishedVersio

A minute of your time: The impact of survey recruitment method and interview location on the value of travel time

Web-based stated preference (SP) surveys are widely used to estimate values of travel time (VTT) for cost–benefit analysis, often with internet panels as the source of recruitment. The recruitment method could potentially bias the results because (1) those who frequently participate in surveys may have a lower opportunity cost of time and (2) people who answer the survey at home or in the office may answer differently because the choice situation is less salient to them. In this paper, we investigate both mechanisms using data from a VTT choice experiment study where respondents were recruited from an internet panel, an alternative email register or on-board/on the station. Within all three groups, some complete the survey while making an actual trip. We find that respondents who were recruited from the internet panel or report being members of a panel have a significantly lower VTT, suggesting that internet panels are less representative in this respect compared to other recruitment methods. We also find that those who answer while traveling have a higher VTT, possibly because the benefits of saving travel time are more salient to them than to those who answer while not traveling.A minute of your time: The impact of survey recruitment method and interview location on the value of travel timepublishedVersio

Investigating observed and unobserved variation in the probability of ‘not travel’ as a behavioural response to restrictive policies

Besides technological improvements, restrictive car policies are likely to be the most effective measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from local passenger transport. Restrictive policies may lead some individuals to choose to not travel to otherwise useful or enjoyable activities. This paper therefore explores what factors drive the probability of ‘not travel’ as a behavioural response to restrictive policies. Using stated choice data among car owners in the 10 largest cities in Norway, we investigate observed and unobserved taste variation for ‘not travel’ given different (hypothetical) policies. The empirical evidence suggests that the likelihood of ‘not travel’ (a) is lower for work-related trips; (b) is higher where respondents state they have no decent alternatives; (c) increases with trip distance; and (d) increases with the intensity of the policy. We perform Monte-Carlo simulations illustrating different predicted choice behaviour for car users and public transport users under different types of stylized policies (travel time changes versus travel cost changes).publishedVersio

What Factors Affect Cross-Modal Substitution - Evidences from the Oslo Area

The vast majority of studies on urban travel demand focus on the effect on the demand of one travel mode given a change in the characteristics of that same transport mode, for example, own-elasticities. comparatively little is known about cross-elasticities of demand. In particular, there is a need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of modal substitution, that is a better understanding of cross-modal diversion factors (Dfs) defined as the proportion of people who leave mode a and switch to mode b. The purpose of this article is to investigate what factors explain variations in Dfs across transport modes, submarkets and policy measures. using a recently developed empirical travel mode choice model for the Oslo area, we simulate over 10,000 different Dfs by systematically changing the underlying transport modes, submarkets and policies (size, direction and type of change). With descriptive statistics, we show how the Dfs vary on a general level. most results are immediately intuitive, for example that car drivers mostly substitute to walk for short-distance trips but that those Dfs diminish rapidly with increasing distance. Interestingly, we find rather high Dfs across different forms of public transportation. With successive regression analyses we show that the number of available alternatives and relative market shares significantly affect Dfs

Methodological challenges in modelling the choice of mode for a new travel alternative using binary stated choice data - The case of high speed rail in Norway

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Car drivers' valuation of landslide risk reductions

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Empirical speed models for cycling in the Oslo road network

Knowing the speed at which a cyclist travels is important in route and mode choice modelling. Empirical evidence suggests that it varies significantly in accordance with—among other things—infrastructure and topology. Despite this, in many network-based transport models cycling speed is constant, making travel distance the predominant variable of cycling behavior. Motivated by the lack of a comprehensive speed model in the literature, we present models for bicycles and e-bikes estimated based on a large-scale collection of GPS data in the Oslo area. In the models, speed on a network link is described as a function of several characteristics of the infrastructure and topology, and differs by user segments such as gender, trip purpose and type of bicycle. Model parameters are estimated with regression models using data from close to 50,000 single cycling trips. The data indicate that, on average, men cycle at a faster rate than women, although the difference is significantly less in the case of e-bikes. There is a non-linear and non-monotonic relationship between speed and gradient, with speed increasing up to a gradient of − 6%, but decreasing thereafter most likely due to safety concerns. Notable is the fact that cycling speed is significantly higher on routes where cyclists and pedestrians have their own dedicated space

Value of travel time by road type

Travel time is less costly if it is comfortable or can be used productively. One could hence argue that the value of travel time (VTT) of car travellers in economic appraisal should be differentiated by road type, reflecting differences in road quality. We explain the theoretical foundation for such a differentiation, review the relevant literature and show the results of an empirical case study based on actual route choice of highway drivers in Norway. We find little existing literature discussing the link between road type and VTT, but closely related findings suggest that that the impact on VTT could be substantial. Our empirical case study also suggests that the VTT is lower on higher quality road types. Applying this to economic appraisal would imply higher user benefits of road projects that improve road quality

Asymmetric preferences for road safety: Evidence from a stated choice experiment among car drivers

Recent research has proposed fitting responses from discrete choice experiments to asymmetric value functions consistent with prospect theory, taking into account respondents’ reference points in their valuation of choice attributes. Previous studies have mainly concentrated on travel time and cost attributes, while evidence regarding road safety attributes is very limited. This paper investigates the implicit utility of a road safety attribute, defined as the number of casualties per year in alternative car trip choices, when safety improves or deteriorates. Using appropriate statistical tests we are able to reject symmetric preferences for losses and gains in the level of safety and estimate a sigmoid value function that exhibits loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. This adds an interesting psychological dimension to the preference of road safety. Possible implications of this finding for policy making are discussed.submittedVersio